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Monday, May 13, 2013

Is the Toronto Real Estate Market Too Expensive!?


Survey respondents: Canada market too expensiveBy Cameron French, REUTERS
A home up for sale in Toronto. (QMI Agency/Jack Boland) TORONTO - Canada’s housing boom will grind to a halt next year, stopped by price declines in the condominium-saturated markets of Toronto and Vancouver, according to a Reuters poll, raising the risk of a broader economic slowdown.
On a national basis, Canadian house prices are expected to rise 2.0 percent this year before stalling next year with a negligible 0.5 percent gain, according to median results of the poll, which was conducted last week.
House prices have increased 37 percent since their trough in January 2009, The Canadian Real Estate Association index showed. All 15 respondents in the poll said the market was expensive, by varying degrees.
“Home prices are overvalued by slightly under 10 percent nationwide (and) most of the overvaluation is concentrated in Toronto and Vancouver,” said Mark Hopkins of Moody’s Analytics, citing a common concern about the two hottest urban markets.
House prices in Toronto, Canada’s largest city and financial capital, are expected to rise 6.6 percent this year after rising al most 10 percent in 2011. But that will quickly fizzle into a decline of 0.2 percent next year, the first fall since 2008.
In Vancouver, the country’s most expensive market and until recently clocking the fastest annual price rises, they are expected to fall 1.6 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2013.
Canada’s housing market avoided the U.S. sub-prime boom and bust that triggered the global financial crisis, in large part because its banks are more closely regulated and more conservative, requiring higher deposits for mortgage lending.
While property prices tumbled in the U.S., Ireland, Spain, and to a lesser extent, Britain, record low borrowing costs that followed the recession spurred another wave of home buying and property market speculation in Canada.
By early 2010, sales volumes and prices were rising by double digits on an annual basis. Figures from one industry group showed that since March 2009, the nadir of the financial crisis, Canada home prices have risen by nearly a third.
HIGH DEBT LOADS
While the housing boom helped pull the country out of a shallower recession much faster than the United States, it has also fueled fears a major correction could be in the offing.
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty have both expressed concern with the high debt loads Canadians have taken on to finance house purchases, enticed by rock-bottom interest rates.
Household debt levels are approaching those in the U.S. before the housing meltdown there, where prices fell by more than a third and still have not shown meaningful signs of recovery. Canada’s credit market-debt-to-income ratio hit a record 152 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
Some economists, like Bricklin Dwyer at BNP Paribas, worry that Canada’s economy, which has outperformed its peers in the G7, could take a big hit if the housing market were to turn suddenly. Recent experience around the globe shows that is what booming property markets often do.
“Whether or not Canada will face a hard landing will be determined by whether or not household risk was correctly priced in the first place. In other words, when Canadians show up to refinance their mortgages, if their interest rates jump and/or the terms of their loans change dramatically, then households could default at a rapid rate,” Dwyer said.
“If the demand for housing slows too quickly, then homeowners could quickly find themselves underwater and promoting a dangerous cycle as they try to unload their home.”
Unlike the Federal Reserve in boom times, The Bank of Canada said last week the housing market and the threat of a correction was one of the main risks to the Canadian economy.
“The continued high level of activity and stretched valuations in some segments of the housing market are of increasing concern,” it said in its semi-annual Financial System Review.
CONDO BOOM TO BUST?
Housing starts are also expected to retreat through this year, according to the poll. Starts are expected at an annualized seasonally-adjusted 216,000 in the second quarter, falling to 190,000 by the fourth quarter. Annualized starts were 211,400 in May, down from 243,800 in April.
Rapid condominium construction in Vancouver and Toronto - where the skylines are now crowded with high-rises - has raised fears that the market could find itself saturated in supply and become the trigger point to a larger crash.
High immigration to both cities has fed the condo boom, but has also helped stoke fears that the market is partly supported by foreign investors who may pull out their money if the market starts to reverse.
Finance Minister Flaherty has tightened mortgage requirements three times since 2008 to cool the property market and the market has rallied on. But half of the respondents in the poll said the government probably won’t intervene again in the next twelve months.
“The government understands that we have a safe mortgage market and that further tightening would risk a policy-induced housing market slowdown that would have broader macroeconomic risk,” said property market analyst Will Dunning.
Reuters polled Canada’s big banks, independent analysts as well as international participants. Of Canada’s major lenders, National Bank Financial declined to participate in the poll, as did CIBC, saying they did not provide forecasts on Canada’s housing market. A few other primary dealers also declined to participate.

Ritz-Carlton SPA Opening


Spa My Blend by Clarins makes North American premiere at The Ritz-Carlton, Toronto TORONTO, June 6, 2012 /CNW/ - A fully customized spa experience launches today with the highly-anticipated opening of Spa My Blend by Clarins at The Ritz-Carlton, Toronto.
My Blend is a revolutionary new concept of personalized skin care that treats the skin according to individual and evolving needs at every stage of life. This exclusive treatment will be made available for the first time in North America at Toronto's only 5-diamond hotel, The Ritz-Carlton, Toronto.
Personal Skin Coaches deliver the Spa My Blend experience through tailor-made wellness options for the face and body. The signature My Blend facial features custom-blended formulations based on individual skin profiles that are determined through in-depth diagnostic imaging. Using My Blend's unique 3-step system of Essentials, Boosters and Specifics, a personalized formula is created for each guest.
Spa My Blend offers a full selection of essential Clarins services, including targeted body treatments, tri-active facials, skin therapy and massage. The Discovery Enhancements menu allows guests to further personalize their experience with luxurious additions such as the Luminous Eyes, relaxing Foot Ritual or Revitalizing Body Scrub.
The Spa's new wellness programs include one-on-one personal training by Innovative Fitness using state-of-the-art gym Techno-Gym, Precor and Kinesis equipment, as well as individual yoga instruction by yogagurl in the movement studio.
With the aim to make guests feel beautiful both inside and out, Spa My Blend's Champagne Nail Bar with luxury pedicure stations is perfectly suited for individual appointments or social engagements, while celebrity stylist Jackie Gideon enhances looks at the Spa's Beauty Bar.
For more information, visit SpaMyBlendToronto.com or call 416-572-8000.
For further information: Melanie Greco Public Relations The Ritz-Carlton, Toronto Email: melanie@getinkpr.ca
Click below to find a Ritz-Carlton condo and enjoy the full luxury experience The Ritz-Carlton Residences


First People's Exhibit to Open @ The Bell Lightbox


An exhibit focusing on Canada’s First Peoples will open at the TIFF Lightbox on Thursday, featuring movies, an art exhibit and lectures, including one from actor Graham Greene. First Peoples Cinema: 1500 Nations, One Tradition takes a look back at indigenous filmmaking around the world, while the gallery show Home on Native Land features new media work from aboriginal artists from Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand.
“This project embodies TIFF’s vision to celebrate diversity and foster international and cultural understanding and exchange,” artistic director Noah Cowan said in as statement.
“Bringing together these works from a variety of First Peoples artists from around the globe will offer visitors a unique experience of creative and cultural discovery.”
Click here to see the full film program.
Greene, who was nominated for an Academy Award for his role in Dances with Wolves, will speak on June 25.
Other lecturers include Australian film director Warwick Thornton; Chris Eyre, a director who is a member of the Cheyenne and Arapaho tribes; New Zealand director Tusi Tamasese; Toronto writer and director Shane Belcourt, who is Metis; and Gemini-award winning actress Michelle St. John, who is a member of Wampanoag.
The exhibit runs until Aug. 19. Click here for a full list of events.


Toronto real estate now: A fixer-upper at $227,000 over asking


For the owners of a semi-detached house on Pearson Ave., $699,000 seemed like a fair asking price for the five-unit property. They were hoping it might go a little higher on the offer night a few weeks ago. “We were all totally shocked when it sold firm for $926,000,” says Lyle Hamilton of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.
The house at 180 Pearson Ave. sits in Roncesvalles Village - one of the most frenzied real estate pockets in Toronto. Six bidders submitted offers that night.
“This one was way out in front - it was a pretty obvious winner,” says Mr. Hamilton, who added that there was no second round of bidding. “The sellers were elated.”
Mr. Hamilton says setting a night for reviewing offers often leads to unpredictable results. It’s hard to gauge how badly someone will want a particular house. Often people who’ve lost out in a previous contest or two will be spurred on to bid more aggressively the next time.
“We don’t really have any control over who comes to play that week.”
In this case the house needs work - especially if the new owners want to convert it from five apartments back into a single family home.
Mr. Hamilton says his strategy was to get the word out to builders, renovators and investors along with the avid young couples and other prospective buyers who are already keenly focussed on that area.
“It had that versatility of use that played very strongly in its favour.”
Mr. Hamilton says the market’space is already shifting a little bit in favour of buyers. Listings jumped in May just as buyers’ attention is turning towards the end of the school year and summer vacation plans.
Meanwhile, everybody, including me, wants to know how things are unfolding a few kilometres north and west where investment advisor Bernie Doyle is selling his house without the aid of a real estate agent.
The details about 673 Willard Ave. are available on the PropertyGuys.com site and realtor.ca Mr. Doyle and his wife Alison have set an asking price of $575,000.
He says more than 100 people came to the open houses last weekend: many after reading last week’s Next Move, in which Mr. Doyle railed against agents who are “absent to the game”.
“There were many very lively conversations about ‘going it alone’ in this hot market. It was a great deal of fun for all.”
Mr. Doyle says he has had less fun dealing with the agents who have phoned him and tried to discourage him from pursuing the “for sale by owner” strategy. He believes he has been blackballed by some buyers’ agents.
Mr. Doyle says there is so much thirst from the public to understand what he’s going through that he’s decided to start a blog about the experience. He’s not going to appease any agents with his choice of name, which is “Real Estate Hacks”.
Meanwhile, he’s hoping for a table full of offers on offer night.
Stay tuned.

For information on Toronto Condos

TTC expresses concern over Eglinton rail line timeline


Construction on the Eglinton Crosstown line is already behind schedule, as construction crews grapple with unexpected electrical and water pipes underneath Eglinton Avenue and Keele Street, according to senior Metrolinx staff. The news emerged as Toronto Transit Commissioners voted to mute a TTC report critical of the plans that Metrolinx is putting in place to have the light rail line up and running by 2020.
Metrolinx VP of Rapid Transit Implementation, Jack Collins, told reporters that the $5-billion project is already behind schedule.
"There's been a slight delay at the launch shaft site in moving utilities, as there are water and Hydro utilities there that we weren't aware of," said Collins, who said Metrolinx was pleased that the TTC had affirmed its support of the Metrolinx plan.
That support came after a report from TTC staff that pointed out several "concerns" about the Metrolinx plan to build and own the light rail line itself, using public-private partnerships with contractors to help finance the project.
The TTC report said the timeline for completion of the project is too ambitious, and it would more realistically be completed by 2023. The report also said it was unlikely having private-sector partners help finance the plan could end up boosting the cost by as much as $40 million.
And it said that a plan to build all of the stations in the underground portion of the line at once could result in problems in the communities along the line.
The report also suggested that Metrolinx begin work on the Sheppard LRT a year earlier than scheduled, in 2013.
But TTC Chief Executive Officer Andy Byford said the critique wasn't meant to undermine the project, which is being paid for by Infrastructure Ontario and owned by Metrolinx.
"We're as one wanting to get on with these projects," said Byford. "The only reason we submitted the report today was because of a number of concerns we had."
Byford maintained that the TTC is still skeptical that the ambitious timelines can work.
"In our professional opinion we still think that's a very tight time scale," he said. "Not that it can't be done but it would be very tight and would have implications for constrution."
Byford admitted that it was important that the public know who was responsible for the line. All other TTC projects have been constructed and managed by the commission itself. This one is a provincial project.
"I think one of the issues for me that is very important that the general public, the citizens of Toronto, know whose building these... the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown, it's important that people know it's Metrolinx," he said.
"Not to apportion blame, but if people have concerns about community consultation, they shouldn't be mistaken in thinking it's the TTC's project."
Eglinton-Lawrence Councillor Josh Colle was anxious to move the project forward as quickly as possible, and moved a motion to affirm the TTC's support of Metrolinx's schedule.
"We're letting them know we're full partners and intend to be there throughout the whole project," he said. "The commission wanted to clearly send the message that we're at the table."


What a banker is telling foreign investors about Toronto real estate


By CAROLYN IRELAND Toronto — The Globe and Mail
Published 
Last updated 
  I can’t imagine what it’s like to be a Bank of Nova Scotia economist facing a room full of foreign real estate mavens.
Investors around the globe are fascinated by Canada’s housing market. When Scotiabank vice-president Derek Holt did the rounds of U.S. cities last week to present Canadian Housing in a Macro Context, he must have been besieged.
Canada’s housing market is stretched but there are lots of mitigating factors that should quell some of the anxiety floating around, according to Mr. Holt, who narrows in on “Why it’s Different from the United States”.
Interest rates in Canada will stay low a while yet according to Mr. Holt and Dov Zigler and Adrienne Warren, who put together some of the forecasts for the road trip. They add that inflation won’t challenge Bank of Canada targets while growth in wages remains weak.
Household debt growth is already cooling, they add, and the central bank shouldn’t push that too far. For one thing, other factors – including the strong Canadian dollar, real wages and regulatory tightening – are already doing the work of the Bank of Canada.
Still, the economists point out some of their worries: Canada’s record-high rate of home ownership has surpassed the rate in Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, Canada has overshot the United States on average house prices, and the ratio of insured mortgages to uninsured has swelled.
Confidence should be bolstered by the fact that the sellers’ market of the past few years is returning to a better balance between buyers and sellers. There’s no evidence of too much building in the single-family house market, they add, and the rules surrounding long mortgage amortization periods and paltry down payments have already been strengthened.
As for the number of cranes filling the sky in cities such as Toronto, Montreal and Calgary, there are plenty of things driving the demand for high-rise condominium units, say the economists. They point to the fact that condos are more affordable and provide more to choose from than single-family houses. People are moving here from overseas and those who already live here are changing their lifestyles. There’s a trend to urban intensification, vacancies for rental units are tight, and investors are still keen to own condos.
But the economists do note some “pockets of concern”: Vancouver has seen a jump in the inventory of unsold condos compared with the long-term average, while Calgary’s condo market is not lean either. Toronto’s condo boom masks the shrinking amount of building in the market for detached and semi-detached houses, they add.
As for why Canada is different from the United States, the economists look at stronger household finances on this side of the border. Canadians have more home equity and more real estate assets.
Meanwhile, the country’s diversified economy means that economic shocks – when they do hit – never hit all of the local housing markets in various cities in the same way.
Canada’s banks are strongly capitalized and there is far less shadow banking than in the United States. That revolving-door-financing so popular south of the border is not prevalent here.
Canadians don’t default when house prices correct: In Toronto and Vancouver since the late 1980s, mortgage arrears have barely budged even when prices dropped.
The chart showing average existing home prices as a multiple of income per capita is particularly striking: While the line plotting the U.S. numbers turned downwards back in 2006 or so, the Canadian trajectory has been mostly upwards since 2001.

TREB President Outlines Privacy Concerns


May 18, 2012 -- Recently there has been coverage in the media regarding the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) and its fight to protect consumers in the dispute with the Canadian Competition Bureau.   However, there are a few points that continue to cause confusion, and should be clarified. While some material on MLS® is publicly available through REALTOR.ca, TREB safeguards personal information as guided by privacy legislation. Abandoning these privacy safeguards of MLS® threatens the privacy of GTA consumers.
To better understand how Ontarians feel about the Competition Bureau’s actions to force TREB to abandon the safeguards in the MLS® System, TREB commissioned an Angus Reid poll.
The results of this poll could not be clearer. As part of the poll, TREB asked the question “Do you feel that, as much as possible, personal information (such as your name or the final sale price of your home) disclosed during the buying or selling of a home should be kept confidential by your REALTOR®?”
75% of Ontarians answered yes. Only 25% answered no. The overwhelming majority of Ontarians want their personal information kept confidential.
This sensitive private information includes a seller’s name (coupled with their address), negotiated sale price, sensitive property access information, financial information (including mortgage details), and property floor plans. If the Competition Bureau is successful, this information could become publicly available on the Internet, easily accessible by anyone.
The Competition Bureau is taking actions that would force TREB to abandon privacy safeguards for the entire MLS® System. This would create a “one stop shop” for abuses of private information. Consumers have not consented to this, and it would violate privacy laws.
Indeed this is the age of the Internet which is why TREB took steps to provide REALTOR® clients with much richer information but in a safe and responsible way. This is called a Virtual Office Website (VOW). TREB believes this policy meets the consumers’ need for more information.
A VOW service allows REALTORS® to offer consumers much richer information than that seen on REALTOR.ca. This password-protected website displays MLS® listing data while providing consumers with the benefit of a REALTOR® Member's knowledge and accountability, and without compromising MLS® accuracy or consumers’ privacy rights.
Ontarians want their personal information kept confidential. REALTORS® subscribe to a Code of Ethics and have an obligation to protect consumers’ personal information.
This is a complex issue. That’s why TREB launched the website ProtectYourPrivacy.ca—to build awareness of the consequences of the Canadian Competition Bureau’s actions to dismantle the privacy safeguards of the MLS® System. REALTORS® have access to personal and sensitive information and an obligation to protect it.

Toronto Condos

Toronto Real Estate Board: April Numbers


Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,350 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in April 2012. This level of sales was 18 per cent higher than the 8,778 firm deals reported in April 2011. The strongest sales growth was reported in the single-detached market segment, with transactions of this home type up by 22 per cent compared to a year ago. “Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. Growth in single-detached listings has not kept up with demand, which means competition between buyers in this market segment increased. With this in mind, it was no surprise that the strongest annual price increase was also experienced in the single-detached segment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President, Richard Silver.
The average price for April 2012 transactions was $517,556 – up 8.5 per cent compared to April 2011. While price growth was strongest for single-detached homes, the better-supplied condominium apartment segment experienced a more moderate annual rate of price growth, at four per cent.
“Monthly mortgage payments remain affordable for home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area. While interest rates are generally expected to increase over the next two years, the extent and timing of rate hikes has been thrown into question by slower than expected economic growth in the first quarter of this year. On net, borrowing costs are expected to remain a positive factor influencing home sales through 2012,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Sell your Toronto Home

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Toronto Condos




Toronto Real Estate Board: April Numbers


Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,350 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in April 2012. This level of sales was 18 per cent higher than the 8,778 firm deals reported in April 2011. The strongest sales growth was reported in the single-detached market segment, with transactions of this home type up by 22 per cent compared to a year ago. “Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. Growth in single-detached listings has not kept up with demand, which means competition between buyers in this market segment increased. With this in mind, it was no surprise that the strongest annual price increase was also experienced in the single-detached segment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President, Richard Silver.
The average price for April 2012 transactions was $517,556 – up 8.5 per cent compared to April 2011. While price growth was strongest for single-detached homes, the better-supplied condominium apartment segment experienced a more moderate annual rate of price growth, at four per cent.
“Monthly mortgage payments remain affordable for home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area. While interest rates are generally expected to increase over the next two years, the extent and timing of rate hikes has been thrown into question by slower than expected economic growth in the first quarter of this year. On net, borrowing costs are expected to remain a positive factor influencing home sales through 2012,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Sell your Toronto Home

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Toronto Condos


Condo Security: Budget builders usually skimp on security matters


“Beware of the budget builder. These folks cut corners and one area that almost always makes the cut list is building security. Legally, the builder hasn’t done anything wrong; after all, he did abide by the building code. Builders only need to satisfy the city’s building inspectors to get a pass on their report card. Unfortunately, upgrading existing security has become accepted by new condominium owners in order to keep their building safe from intruders. So how many more consumers are going to be hit with the budget builder’s bills? The answer lies in the hands of the building commission who sets the building codes. These professionals need to educate themselves on the importance of good home security. Revamping the building security codes will not only benefit the consumer, but enhance sales for the builder.” Toronto condos
Security is an important feature when looking for a condo. Be vigilant in knowing whether your building offers a 24 hour monitored security guard or if your last line of defense is the front door.


Busy builders unfazed by talk of Toronto condo bubble


From his office, the chief executive officer of real estate developer Diamondcorp looks south toward the towers of the Toronto skyline. But what Stephen Diamond sees is the extended expanse of tree tops between his office and the downtown core. The houses beneath those trees are the reason the developer is comfortable making big bets on the city’s condo market. Unlike downtown Tokyo or London or New York, Toronto has a plethora of single-family homes in its core, he points out.
So although it is true that there are more condos under construction in Toronto than anywhere else in North America, he doesn’t see it as worrisome: It’s just the next phase of the city’s development.
His view sets him apart as fears grow about the health of the condo market in Canada’s most populous city, where developers are building at a record pace. But Mr. Diamond is confident enough that he has raised a new $130-million fund that will be used to build more condos.
“From an urban fabric point of view, Toronto is unique in the world,” Mr. Diamond said in an interview. “It’s one of the few cities that has both a very healthy core and low-rise single-family homes almost within walking distance of the core.”
He believes that what is occurring is a necessary switch from building outward to building upward. “We’re not supplying too many units, we’re supplying them in a different form,” he said in an interview.
More than 6,000 newly built condos sold in Toronto in the first quarter, the highest number ever for the January-to-March period, research firm Urbanation said Monday. But the average number of sales per project was down, as builders unveil more new projects every week. There were 338 active condo projects in Toronto in the first quarter, a record high.
Urbanation has identified the rising amount of unsold condo units as a factor that could derail the market. There were 15,554 unsold units at the end of 2011 – 27 per cent more than a year earlier.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty recently suggested that developers in Toronto are prepared to build until sales evaporate, a scenario that he said could lead to a condo market crash.
Twelve years ago, most of the new housing in Toronto was low-rise homes. Now most of it is high-rise towers. Construction of single homes is at all-time lows.
Immigration trends suggest that the Toronto census metropolitan area will need between 42,500 and 52,000 new dwellings a year. Only 28,500 were delivered last year, Mr. Diamond noted. Vacancy rates remain low.
“Every market is cyclical,” he said. “But Toronto has a great, great future. Unless something that emerges that’s going to throw this city completely off base, we have a lot of confidence.”
Mr. Diamond (whose father was A.E. Diamond, a founder and the first chairman and CEO of Cadillac Fairview) was a municipal and planning lawyer for most of his career.
He has spent the past three years investing Diamondcorp’s first real estate investment fund, which raised $70-million from RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust, Sterling Silver Development Corp. and the Diamond family’s venture capital firm. It produced about 2,500 condo units in seven projects.
Mr. Diamond said all levels of government should change tax incentives and development fees to encourage the construction of larger condo units, such as three-bedrooms, rather than the smaller units that are dominating the current developments.
“If we did that, then I don’t think there’s any bubble in the city of Toronto at all, because we need to accommodate the population,” he said.

TARA PERKINS

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
Published 
Last updated 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/busy-builders-unfazed-by-talk-of-toronto-condo-bubble/article2425295/


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Toronto condo starts show no sign of cooling

The fevered pace of condominium construction in Toronto shows no signs of fizzling out.Figures released Wednesday showed the number of condos starting construction in the city in March rose at almost twice the pace of the Canadian average for all homes as buyers ignored government warnings about the risks of excessive personal debt and high prices. “It’s incredible – busy, busy, busy,” said Mark Savel, a real estate agent specializing in downtown Toronto with Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc. “I’m seeing a lot more first-timers get into the market. I’m also seeing a lot of clients cashing out and getting out of the city.” In Toronto, there are about 148 skyscrapers and high-rises under construction, far more than any other city in North America, according to data compiled by Hamburg-based Emporis. There are 400 planned developments marketing their condos across the Greater Toronto Area, near an all-time high, said Jasmine Cracknell, a market analyst in Toronto at N. Barry Lyon Consultants Ltd. Comparing March, 2012, to March, 2011, in Toronto, work started on about 29 per cent more condos this year. “The general feeling this year is that we’re on pace for another record-breaking year,” Mr. Savel said. All that activity means economists are keeping a wary eye on the Toronto and Vancouver areas, where average selling prices for homes in the past year have risen 10 per cent to $501,614, and 5.3 per cent to $679,000, respectively. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Wednesday that housing starts in March rose 5 per cent from February to an annual pace of 215,600, when adjusted for seasonal variations – the strongest showing since the economic crisis began in October, 2008. The increase was due primarily to multi-unit construction in Ontario and the Prairie provinces, CMHC said. In Toronto, starts soared by 91.1 per cent. But even the latest jump in housing starts doesn’t have analysts worried about a U.S.-style crash. Construction starts can rise or fall significantly from month to month, affected by a variety of factors – such as March’s unseasonably warm weather, which accelerated construction schedules, or the recent mortgage wars, which convinced more people to jump into the market. “Condo-starts numbers are notoriously volatile,” said Robert Kavcic, an economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. More important measures, observers say, are signs across the country that employment and the overall economy are improving. “The economy is not doing so bad. Actually it’s doing quite well,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at the CMHC’s market analysis centre. “Economic fundamentals in Canada are supporting the housing market.” In the Vancouver area, housing starts overall climbed 26 per cent last month from March, 2011, while they fell 40 per cent in Montreal. Part of what’s driving Toronto’s condo-building boom “is a dearth of available new detached homes … not for lack of demand but for lack of space,” Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said in a note to clients. That could boost the case for those arguing that construction is being driven by real demand, as opposed to speculation. Housing starts are counted in relation to foundation work, even though bulldozers and dump trucks may have already been digging and hauling earth for months. They’re an important indicator of the mid-point of the sale process, Ms. Cracknell said. Property developers can sell a million units without any of them ever being built. And these days, developers can’t get construction financing until they’ve sold 70 per cent of the units in a project, compared with 50 per cent or 60 per cent a few years ago, she said. While for this year Mr. Savel expects Toronto condo sales – which are different than housing starts – to break last year’s record of more than 28,000, Ms. Cracknell expects a decline. The previous high totalled about 21,000 in 2007, and it takes three or four years from when a unit is sold to when the building is counted in the housing-start data, she said. “All the cranes we’re seeing right now are from how hot things were in 2007 and 2008,” Ms. Cracknell said.


1980s’ celebrity haunt closing to make way for Toronto condos


Hans Gerhardt hasn’t worked at the Sutton Place Hotel since 1993, but ask him to recount his memories of the Bay Street establishment and he starts back when it opened, long before he even started working there. “The Sutton Place opened with a bang in 1967,” said the former hotel president. Michael Myer-Rush, had stolen $30-million from the Mafia and was staying at the hotel when a prostitute was given the job of planting a bomb under his bed.
The bomb went off, though the man survived.
The hotel itself won’t, not after news was released Wednesday that Lanterra Developments has acquired the property from its current Hong Kong-based owners and will retrofit the Sutton Place as a 42-floor luxury residential condominium.
Barry Fenton, president and CEO of Lanterra, said he wants to keep the vibe of the hotel, but admits there will be a lot of changes.
“It is going to have an English theme, a sort of modern feel to it,” he said. “We are going to widen the base of the building and add nine floors, but the final design isn’t finalized.”
Lanterra is hoping to begin construction by end of year, adding 20,000 square feet of retail space while maintaining the main structure.
A celebrity hotspot in the 1980s, The Sutton Place Hotel has played host to everyone from Michael Jackson to Sophia Loren.
The Toronto film industry may not have reached its heights without the 33-storey landmark that housed stars when they came to the city to film, Mr. Gerhardt said.
He became president in 1986 and said the catalyst that made it the in place for celebrities was the filming in 1987 of Three Men and a Baby.
“Ted Danson stayed for months at the biggest suite in the hotel and every Thursday he would host a dinner party,” Mr. Gerhardt recalled. “Sometimes up to 40 of the who’s who of Hollywood who were in Toronto would show up.”
In the late 1980s, Mr. Gerhardt made a bet with actor Dudley Moore: If he could get Robin Leach, host of Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous, to come with him to a hotel conference in Rio de Janeiro, Mr. Moore would have to play piano at The Sutton Place. Mr. Leach did go and Mr. Moore played six sold-out shows at the hotel.
One year, Mr. Gerhardt and well-known hotel butler Werner Jankowski created an advertisement for the hotel, with a nod to their many actor friends. The ad featured the two of them in tails and top hats, with an giant Oscar statue in between, saying: “Thinking of you from The Sutton Place.” The Los Angeles Times said the advertisement should have been nominated for an Oscar itself. Five days later, Mr. Gerhardt received a strongly worded letter from the Academy of stating that he had illegally used their trademark.
Although saddened by news of the condo project, Mr. Gerhardt believes it is a sign of the times for Toronto, where redevelopment is happening everywhere.
“All these new hotels, Ontario Place closing and redeveloping, it’s a sign that Toronto is continuing to grow and stay globally competitive,” he said. “TIFF has moved to King Street, the entertainment side is moving away from Yorkville.”
He left in 1993 when the hotel was sold to new owners. At this same time, Mr. Jankowski found himself without a job.
“Werner and I were a team, and he was very well known to all the celebrities he served,” Mr. Gerhardt said. “So when he was let go, he ended up working for the neighbour of our former hotel owners — Conrad Black.”
National Post

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Toronto real estate: Average house now $606,600


The Canadian Real Estate Association has launched a new system for tracking home and condo sales prices aimed at giving buyers and sellers a more precise picture of what’s happening right in their neighbourhoods. The new system will track Canadian and regional home sales and price escalations based on “benchmark prices.” Those benchmarks are based on quantitative factors (the number of rooms, bathrooms, age of home) and qualitative factors (proximity to schools, parks) and are intended to shine a light on highly localized factors that may be skewing prices up or down but not necessarily reflect market conditions.
CREA has also established a new MLS Home Price Index — similar to the Consumer Price Index which measures price inflation — that tracks prices relative to January, 2005 based on house type, be it single-family homes with one or two storeys, townhouses, row homes or condo apartments.
As of January, the benchmark price of a single-family home in Toronto hit $606,600 — $100,000 more than the $499,800 benchmark price for a similar home in the rest of Canada. That Toronto home cost 50.3 per cent more than it would have in January, 2005.
Over time, far more localized data will become available for MLS districts that should paint a clearer picture of neighbourhood trends.
“One of the key goals is to take a little bit of volatility out of housing statistics,” says Jason Mercer, senior analyst for the Toronto Real Estate Board. “It’s going to provide a good tool for consumers to understand where their home fits into the market.”
CREA will continue to release its traditional Canada-wide and regional breakdowns of average and median home prices, which it claims are often “misinterpreted” and can swing significantly, as national prices did last year when there was a rush of foreign investors snapping up homes in high-end Vancouver neighbourhoods.
Right now, just five major real estate boards across Canada are part of the new system — the GTA, Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and Greater Montreal.
Eight more boards will start using the new measures this year, and another eight boards next year.

Market News: Condo craze continues


Both record highs and near-record lows were recorded in the GTA new-home market in 2011. But what will 2012 bring? The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and market research firm RealNet Canada met recently to discuss the final GTA market results for 2011, reporting 28,466 new high-rise units sold last year. That makes 2011 a record year for the Toronto condo market, up 23% from 2010. New low-rise sales set records for other reasons: With just 17,460 new-home low-rise sales throughout the GTA — due to a lack of inventory — 2011 was the third-lowest year over the past 12 in that category. RealNet reported 45,926 new houses (worth about $22-billion) sold in 2011 throughout the GTA — the second-highest year ever.
That means high-rise sales made up 62% of new-home sales in 2011. It’s a shift: According to RealNet, in 2000 only 25% of new home sales were high-rise. We can expect movement in the same direction through 2012, says George Carras, president of RealNet Canada. “The trend will likely continue,” he said. “Based on where inventories are, you should see a continued market-share increase on high-rise.”

While Mr. Carras won’t make further predictions, he’s confirmed 41 new condominium projects scheduled for release in the first six months of 2012. While more sites may make it to the market by June, it compares with 60 new high-rise sites released through the GTA in the first six months of 2011. Yet it’s hard to know what that means for the 2012 high-rise market. Ben Myers, editor of market research firm Urbanation, suggests 2012 will likely be slower than 2011, but not by much.

“It will still likely be close to the top three years ever,” he says, citing Urbanation data. “So 2007 saw 22,500 sales — the second-highest year ever. And 2010 was at 20,500 — that’s now the third highest. I’m expecting [2012] to be somewhere close to the numbers for 2010.”
With about 42,000 high-rise units under construction, is there a risk of flooding the market once those suites are built? It’s hard to say, Mr. Myers says, but so far he doesn’t think so. “We have about 18,000 units that will register this year, but we’re still in a seller’s market in the resale market, we’re still very much in a renter’s market in the condo rental market,” he says. “Those are both very positive. When we start to see a bunch of listings lagging and, in the resale … market see people unable to rent their units, those will be the warning signs.”
By Lisa Van de Ven, Market News
The National Post

Toronto Condos

‘Turned a lemon into lemonade’: Condo tower to be built on dormant city-owned property


The City of Toronto is getting into the condo business, so to speak, as an investor in a proposed 75-storey tower on a triangular parcel of land just steps from Lake Ontario. The “partnership” between construction giant Tridel and Build Toronto, the arm’s-length real estate corporation wholly owned by the city, is the first of many, proponents hope, as the agency seeks to “unlock” the value in surplus properties that are sitting dormant across the city.
The 0.63 acre lot at 10 York St. used to be a car impound lot. This new arrangement will generate more than $40-million over four years for the city, officials said, which is eight to 10 times the value of the land. Build Toronto sold about 80% of the land to Tridel and kept the remaining stake for itself as an investment.
Councillor Doug Ford, vice chair of the Build Toronto board of directors, hailed the deal as the kind he wants to see more often.
“They turned a lemon into lemonade,” Mr. Ford said of a parcel that “no one thought could be built on” at the building’s official unveiling Tuesday.
Leo DelZotto, president of Tridel, said the true profit will only be known once residents have moved in and written their cheques. The project may be complete in six years.
“On a project that takes this amount of time, an outright sale is a one-time gain that day that you close the deal,” said Mr. DelZotto. “But because we have an escalating market, if the market continues to escalate, the city has an opportunity to gain some extra revenue out of a piece of land that they’ve already got a commitment on selling.”

Handout
An artistic rendering of the proposed condo partnership between Build Toronto and Tridel.
The 240-metre, 780-suite building, designed by Wallman Architects, will be decorated with projecting glass boxes that reflect light, a motif inspired by the Aurora Borealis. The proposal must still receive zoning approvals from the city.
With the city’s money problems well documented, the pressure is on for an agency like Build Toronto to generate big financial returns. Build Toronto officially launched in May 2010 and sold its first piece of land, at 154 Front St. East, for $19-million. Build president and CEO Lorne Braithwaite said the agency is now looking at the sale or development potential of another 40 properties. It has firm deals on four sites so far this year, and hopes to close another five by the end of 2011, said John Macintyre, senior vice-president of corporate affairs. In the case of 10 York, Build Toronto reviewed nine proposals before deciding to move forward on a joint venture that delivers a cash payment in 2012 and makes it a part owner.
“There is no financial risk because we’ve already got our money out,” said Mr. Macintyre. His Build Toronto colleague, Bruce Logan, senior director of corporate affairs and operations, qualified that somewhat, saying that any development has some risk, but that the agency has mitigated it by taking a minority stake, and leaving the real estate development to Tridel. “Once it’s complete, we’re out,” said Mr. Logan.
University of Toronto economics and real estate professor William Strange described the venture as “a kind of hedge, in the sense the city is going to get a lot money from condos at precisely the time it needs the money for operations.”
He said most of the aspects of the deal make sense. “But I’m a little concerned about selling off a bunch of city assets as a way to deal with current shortfalls,” he said.
It is not yet known how the 10 York profit would be used. Build Toronto said that is up to city council to decide. In 2010, Build Toronto paid the city a dividend of $11-million (on revenues of $21.8-million).
Councillor Ford lauded the plan. “If you were an investor and you had an opportunity to look at nine-times profit over a four-year period, I’d take that any day,” he said, deftly shifting the focus to a more pressing construction need in Toronto: office space. “I’m getting the word out there, all developers, come knock on our door.”
National Post

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