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Monday, May 13, 2013

Condo Security: Budget builders usually skimp on security matters


“Beware of the budget builder. These folks cut corners and one area that almost always makes the cut list is building security. Legally, the builder hasn’t done anything wrong; after all, he did abide by the building code. Builders only need to satisfy the city’s building inspectors to get a pass on their report card. Unfortunately, upgrading existing security has become accepted by new condominium owners in order to keep their building safe from intruders. So how many more consumers are going to be hit with the budget builder’s bills? The answer lies in the hands of the building commission who sets the building codes. These professionals need to educate themselves on the importance of good home security. Revamping the building security codes will not only benefit the consumer, but enhance sales for the builder.” Toronto condos
Security is an important feature when looking for a condo. Be vigilant in knowing whether your building offers a 24 hour monitored security guard or if your last line of defense is the front door.


Busy builders unfazed by talk of Toronto condo bubble


From his office, the chief executive officer of real estate developer Diamondcorp looks south toward the towers of the Toronto skyline. But what Stephen Diamond sees is the extended expanse of tree tops between his office and the downtown core. The houses beneath those trees are the reason the developer is comfortable making big bets on the city’s condo market. Unlike downtown Tokyo or London or New York, Toronto has a plethora of single-family homes in its core, he points out.
So although it is true that there are more condos under construction in Toronto than anywhere else in North America, he doesn’t see it as worrisome: It’s just the next phase of the city’s development.
His view sets him apart as fears grow about the health of the condo market in Canada’s most populous city, where developers are building at a record pace. But Mr. Diamond is confident enough that he has raised a new $130-million fund that will be used to build more condos.
“From an urban fabric point of view, Toronto is unique in the world,” Mr. Diamond said in an interview. “It’s one of the few cities that has both a very healthy core and low-rise single-family homes almost within walking distance of the core.”
He believes that what is occurring is a necessary switch from building outward to building upward. “We’re not supplying too many units, we’re supplying them in a different form,” he said in an interview.
More than 6,000 newly built condos sold in Toronto in the first quarter, the highest number ever for the January-to-March period, research firm Urbanation said Monday. But the average number of sales per project was down, as builders unveil more new projects every week. There were 338 active condo projects in Toronto in the first quarter, a record high.
Urbanation has identified the rising amount of unsold condo units as a factor that could derail the market. There were 15,554 unsold units at the end of 2011 – 27 per cent more than a year earlier.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty recently suggested that developers in Toronto are prepared to build until sales evaporate, a scenario that he said could lead to a condo market crash.
Twelve years ago, most of the new housing in Toronto was low-rise homes. Now most of it is high-rise towers. Construction of single homes is at all-time lows.
Immigration trends suggest that the Toronto census metropolitan area will need between 42,500 and 52,000 new dwellings a year. Only 28,500 were delivered last year, Mr. Diamond noted. Vacancy rates remain low.
“Every market is cyclical,” he said. “But Toronto has a great, great future. Unless something that emerges that’s going to throw this city completely off base, we have a lot of confidence.”
Mr. Diamond (whose father was A.E. Diamond, a founder and the first chairman and CEO of Cadillac Fairview) was a municipal and planning lawyer for most of his career.
He has spent the past three years investing Diamondcorp’s first real estate investment fund, which raised $70-million from RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust, Sterling Silver Development Corp. and the Diamond family’s venture capital firm. It produced about 2,500 condo units in seven projects.
Mr. Diamond said all levels of government should change tax incentives and development fees to encourage the construction of larger condo units, such as three-bedrooms, rather than the smaller units that are dominating the current developments.
“If we did that, then I don’t think there’s any bubble in the city of Toronto at all, because we need to accommodate the population,” he said.

TARA PERKINS

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
Published 
Last updated 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/busy-builders-unfazed-by-talk-of-toronto-condo-bubble/article2425295/


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Toronto condo starts show no sign of cooling

The fevered pace of condominium construction in Toronto shows no signs of fizzling out.Figures released Wednesday showed the number of condos starting construction in the city in March rose at almost twice the pace of the Canadian average for all homes as buyers ignored government warnings about the risks of excessive personal debt and high prices. “It’s incredible – busy, busy, busy,” said Mark Savel, a real estate agent specializing in downtown Toronto with Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc. “I’m seeing a lot more first-timers get into the market. I’m also seeing a lot of clients cashing out and getting out of the city.” In Toronto, there are about 148 skyscrapers and high-rises under construction, far more than any other city in North America, according to data compiled by Hamburg-based Emporis. There are 400 planned developments marketing their condos across the Greater Toronto Area, near an all-time high, said Jasmine Cracknell, a market analyst in Toronto at N. Barry Lyon Consultants Ltd. Comparing March, 2012, to March, 2011, in Toronto, work started on about 29 per cent more condos this year. “The general feeling this year is that we’re on pace for another record-breaking year,” Mr. Savel said. All that activity means economists are keeping a wary eye on the Toronto and Vancouver areas, where average selling prices for homes in the past year have risen 10 per cent to $501,614, and 5.3 per cent to $679,000, respectively. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Wednesday that housing starts in March rose 5 per cent from February to an annual pace of 215,600, when adjusted for seasonal variations – the strongest showing since the economic crisis began in October, 2008. The increase was due primarily to multi-unit construction in Ontario and the Prairie provinces, CMHC said. In Toronto, starts soared by 91.1 per cent. But even the latest jump in housing starts doesn’t have analysts worried about a U.S.-style crash. Construction starts can rise or fall significantly from month to month, affected by a variety of factors – such as March’s unseasonably warm weather, which accelerated construction schedules, or the recent mortgage wars, which convinced more people to jump into the market. “Condo-starts numbers are notoriously volatile,” said Robert Kavcic, an economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. More important measures, observers say, are signs across the country that employment and the overall economy are improving. “The economy is not doing so bad. Actually it’s doing quite well,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at the CMHC’s market analysis centre. “Economic fundamentals in Canada are supporting the housing market.” In the Vancouver area, housing starts overall climbed 26 per cent last month from March, 2011, while they fell 40 per cent in Montreal. Part of what’s driving Toronto’s condo-building boom “is a dearth of available new detached homes … not for lack of demand but for lack of space,” Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said in a note to clients. That could boost the case for those arguing that construction is being driven by real demand, as opposed to speculation. Housing starts are counted in relation to foundation work, even though bulldozers and dump trucks may have already been digging and hauling earth for months. They’re an important indicator of the mid-point of the sale process, Ms. Cracknell said. Property developers can sell a million units without any of them ever being built. And these days, developers can’t get construction financing until they’ve sold 70 per cent of the units in a project, compared with 50 per cent or 60 per cent a few years ago, she said. While for this year Mr. Savel expects Toronto condo sales – which are different than housing starts – to break last year’s record of more than 28,000, Ms. Cracknell expects a decline. The previous high totalled about 21,000 in 2007, and it takes three or four years from when a unit is sold to when the building is counted in the housing-start data, she said. “All the cranes we’re seeing right now are from how hot things were in 2007 and 2008,” Ms. Cracknell said.


1980s’ celebrity haunt closing to make way for Toronto condos


Hans Gerhardt hasn’t worked at the Sutton Place Hotel since 1993, but ask him to recount his memories of the Bay Street establishment and he starts back when it opened, long before he even started working there. “The Sutton Place opened with a bang in 1967,” said the former hotel president. Michael Myer-Rush, had stolen $30-million from the Mafia and was staying at the hotel when a prostitute was given the job of planting a bomb under his bed.
The bomb went off, though the man survived.
The hotel itself won’t, not after news was released Wednesday that Lanterra Developments has acquired the property from its current Hong Kong-based owners and will retrofit the Sutton Place as a 42-floor luxury residential condominium.
Barry Fenton, president and CEO of Lanterra, said he wants to keep the vibe of the hotel, but admits there will be a lot of changes.
“It is going to have an English theme, a sort of modern feel to it,” he said. “We are going to widen the base of the building and add nine floors, but the final design isn’t finalized.”
Lanterra is hoping to begin construction by end of year, adding 20,000 square feet of retail space while maintaining the main structure.
A celebrity hotspot in the 1980s, The Sutton Place Hotel has played host to everyone from Michael Jackson to Sophia Loren.
The Toronto film industry may not have reached its heights without the 33-storey landmark that housed stars when they came to the city to film, Mr. Gerhardt said.
He became president in 1986 and said the catalyst that made it the in place for celebrities was the filming in 1987 of Three Men and a Baby.
“Ted Danson stayed for months at the biggest suite in the hotel and every Thursday he would host a dinner party,” Mr. Gerhardt recalled. “Sometimes up to 40 of the who’s who of Hollywood who were in Toronto would show up.”
In the late 1980s, Mr. Gerhardt made a bet with actor Dudley Moore: If he could get Robin Leach, host of Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous, to come with him to a hotel conference in Rio de Janeiro, Mr. Moore would have to play piano at The Sutton Place. Mr. Leach did go and Mr. Moore played six sold-out shows at the hotel.
One year, Mr. Gerhardt and well-known hotel butler Werner Jankowski created an advertisement for the hotel, with a nod to their many actor friends. The ad featured the two of them in tails and top hats, with an giant Oscar statue in between, saying: “Thinking of you from The Sutton Place.” The Los Angeles Times said the advertisement should have been nominated for an Oscar itself. Five days later, Mr. Gerhardt received a strongly worded letter from the Academy of stating that he had illegally used their trademark.
Although saddened by news of the condo project, Mr. Gerhardt believes it is a sign of the times for Toronto, where redevelopment is happening everywhere.
“All these new hotels, Ontario Place closing and redeveloping, it’s a sign that Toronto is continuing to grow and stay globally competitive,” he said. “TIFF has moved to King Street, the entertainment side is moving away from Yorkville.”
He left in 1993 when the hotel was sold to new owners. At this same time, Mr. Jankowski found himself without a job.
“Werner and I were a team, and he was very well known to all the celebrities he served,” Mr. Gerhardt said. “So when he was let go, he ended up working for the neighbour of our former hotel owners — Conrad Black.”
National Post

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Toronto real estate: Average house now $606,600


The Canadian Real Estate Association has launched a new system for tracking home and condo sales prices aimed at giving buyers and sellers a more precise picture of what’s happening right in their neighbourhoods. The new system will track Canadian and regional home sales and price escalations based on “benchmark prices.” Those benchmarks are based on quantitative factors (the number of rooms, bathrooms, age of home) and qualitative factors (proximity to schools, parks) and are intended to shine a light on highly localized factors that may be skewing prices up or down but not necessarily reflect market conditions.
CREA has also established a new MLS Home Price Index — similar to the Consumer Price Index which measures price inflation — that tracks prices relative to January, 2005 based on house type, be it single-family homes with one or two storeys, townhouses, row homes or condo apartments.
As of January, the benchmark price of a single-family home in Toronto hit $606,600 — $100,000 more than the $499,800 benchmark price for a similar home in the rest of Canada. That Toronto home cost 50.3 per cent more than it would have in January, 2005.
Over time, far more localized data will become available for MLS districts that should paint a clearer picture of neighbourhood trends.
“One of the key goals is to take a little bit of volatility out of housing statistics,” says Jason Mercer, senior analyst for the Toronto Real Estate Board. “It’s going to provide a good tool for consumers to understand where their home fits into the market.”
CREA will continue to release its traditional Canada-wide and regional breakdowns of average and median home prices, which it claims are often “misinterpreted” and can swing significantly, as national prices did last year when there was a rush of foreign investors snapping up homes in high-end Vancouver neighbourhoods.
Right now, just five major real estate boards across Canada are part of the new system — the GTA, Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and Greater Montreal.
Eight more boards will start using the new measures this year, and another eight boards next year.

Market News: Condo craze continues


Both record highs and near-record lows were recorded in the GTA new-home market in 2011. But what will 2012 bring? The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and market research firm RealNet Canada met recently to discuss the final GTA market results for 2011, reporting 28,466 new high-rise units sold last year. That makes 2011 a record year for the Toronto condo market, up 23% from 2010. New low-rise sales set records for other reasons: With just 17,460 new-home low-rise sales throughout the GTA — due to a lack of inventory — 2011 was the third-lowest year over the past 12 in that category. RealNet reported 45,926 new houses (worth about $22-billion) sold in 2011 throughout the GTA — the second-highest year ever.
That means high-rise sales made up 62% of new-home sales in 2011. It’s a shift: According to RealNet, in 2000 only 25% of new home sales were high-rise. We can expect movement in the same direction through 2012, says George Carras, president of RealNet Canada. “The trend will likely continue,” he said. “Based on where inventories are, you should see a continued market-share increase on high-rise.”

While Mr. Carras won’t make further predictions, he’s confirmed 41 new condominium projects scheduled for release in the first six months of 2012. While more sites may make it to the market by June, it compares with 60 new high-rise sites released through the GTA in the first six months of 2011. Yet it’s hard to know what that means for the 2012 high-rise market. Ben Myers, editor of market research firm Urbanation, suggests 2012 will likely be slower than 2011, but not by much.

“It will still likely be close to the top three years ever,” he says, citing Urbanation data. “So 2007 saw 22,500 sales — the second-highest year ever. And 2010 was at 20,500 — that’s now the third highest. I’m expecting [2012] to be somewhere close to the numbers for 2010.”
With about 42,000 high-rise units under construction, is there a risk of flooding the market once those suites are built? It’s hard to say, Mr. Myers says, but so far he doesn’t think so. “We have about 18,000 units that will register this year, but we’re still in a seller’s market in the resale market, we’re still very much in a renter’s market in the condo rental market,” he says. “Those are both very positive. When we start to see a bunch of listings lagging and, in the resale … market see people unable to rent their units, those will be the warning signs.”
By Lisa Van de Ven, Market News
The National Post

Toronto Condos

‘Turned a lemon into lemonade’: Condo tower to be built on dormant city-owned property


The City of Toronto is getting into the condo business, so to speak, as an investor in a proposed 75-storey tower on a triangular parcel of land just steps from Lake Ontario. The “partnership” between construction giant Tridel and Build Toronto, the arm’s-length real estate corporation wholly owned by the city, is the first of many, proponents hope, as the agency seeks to “unlock” the value in surplus properties that are sitting dormant across the city.
The 0.63 acre lot at 10 York St. used to be a car impound lot. This new arrangement will generate more than $40-million over four years for the city, officials said, which is eight to 10 times the value of the land. Build Toronto sold about 80% of the land to Tridel and kept the remaining stake for itself as an investment.
Councillor Doug Ford, vice chair of the Build Toronto board of directors, hailed the deal as the kind he wants to see more often.
“They turned a lemon into lemonade,” Mr. Ford said of a parcel that “no one thought could be built on” at the building’s official unveiling Tuesday.
Leo DelZotto, president of Tridel, said the true profit will only be known once residents have moved in and written their cheques. The project may be complete in six years.
“On a project that takes this amount of time, an outright sale is a one-time gain that day that you close the deal,” said Mr. DelZotto. “But because we have an escalating market, if the market continues to escalate, the city has an opportunity to gain some extra revenue out of a piece of land that they’ve already got a commitment on selling.”

Handout
An artistic rendering of the proposed condo partnership between Build Toronto and Tridel.
The 240-metre, 780-suite building, designed by Wallman Architects, will be decorated with projecting glass boxes that reflect light, a motif inspired by the Aurora Borealis. The proposal must still receive zoning approvals from the city.
With the city’s money problems well documented, the pressure is on for an agency like Build Toronto to generate big financial returns. Build Toronto officially launched in May 2010 and sold its first piece of land, at 154 Front St. East, for $19-million. Build president and CEO Lorne Braithwaite said the agency is now looking at the sale or development potential of another 40 properties. It has firm deals on four sites so far this year, and hopes to close another five by the end of 2011, said John Macintyre, senior vice-president of corporate affairs. In the case of 10 York, Build Toronto reviewed nine proposals before deciding to move forward on a joint venture that delivers a cash payment in 2012 and makes it a part owner.
“There is no financial risk because we’ve already got our money out,” said Mr. Macintyre. His Build Toronto colleague, Bruce Logan, senior director of corporate affairs and operations, qualified that somewhat, saying that any development has some risk, but that the agency has mitigated it by taking a minority stake, and leaving the real estate development to Tridel. “Once it’s complete, we’re out,” said Mr. Logan.
University of Toronto economics and real estate professor William Strange described the venture as “a kind of hedge, in the sense the city is going to get a lot money from condos at precisely the time it needs the money for operations.”
He said most of the aspects of the deal make sense. “But I’m a little concerned about selling off a bunch of city assets as a way to deal with current shortfalls,” he said.
It is not yet known how the 10 York profit would be used. Build Toronto said that is up to city council to decide. In 2010, Build Toronto paid the city a dividend of $11-million (on revenues of $21.8-million).
Councillor Ford lauded the plan. “If you were an investor and you had an opportunity to look at nine-times profit over a four-year period, I’d take that any day,” he said, deftly shifting the focus to a more pressing construction need in Toronto: office space. “I’m getting the word out there, all developers, come knock on our door.”
National Post

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Enlarge this image New Port Lands plan will cost taxpayers $270-million


The man battling Rob Ford for control over Port Lands redevelopment is warning that the mayor's new plan will cost an additional quarter of a billion dollars for infrastructure. In a wide-ranging interview with The Globe and Mail, Waterfront Toronto CEO John Campbell stressed his agency selected the most cost-effective alternative for naturalizing the mouth of the Don River and building a flood plain capable of handling storms of the magnitude of Hurricane Hazel. Under the mayor’s plan – which features a megamall, Ferris wheel and monorail – Toronto taxpayers could be on the hook for up to $270-million in extra infrastructure costs, according to Waterfront Toronto officials, citing financial estimates that were prepared by third-party costing and hydrology consultants retained for the lengthy environmental assessment process. Among other things, the additional expenses include $50-million for relocating a Hydro substation and $100-million to clean a heavily polluted area north of the Keating Channel, Mr. Campbell said.
These numbers will be presented to council later this month as part of the agency’s business case, which is currently being peer-reviewed.
Waterfront Toronto – an agency of the federal, provincial and Toronto governments – had been charged with coming up with a plan to redevelop the Port Lands, a vast area of heavily contaminated industrial property created by the Toronto Harbour Commission before the Second World War. But early this week, consultants for Toronto Port Lands Corp., a city agency that owns property in the area, unveiled a competing scheme that it claims will hasten revitalization while shifting the cost of infrastructure to the private sector. That scheme has received the support of Mr. Ford's executive committee.
Sounding defiant yet philosophical about the agency’s future, Mr. Campbell made no apologies for the pace of progress in redeveloping 2,000 acres of waterfront, much of it heavily polluted.
“It’s like, please, run this race and by the way, here’s a 300-pound ball and chain you’ve got to drag behind you,” he observed. “I say that to work here, you have to have a high tolerance for ambiguity.”
Officials at Waterfront Toronto say their proposal, developed by Brooklyn-based landscape architects Michael Van Valkenburgh & Associates, has been configured specifically to raise real estate prices in the Port Lands by maximizing the amount of water’s-edge land available for the sort of mixed-use residential development envisioned in the official plan.
“When you look at the value you create, you’re talking about an uptick of 35 per cent,” Mr. Campbell said.
At the same time, he didn’t rule out the possibility of adapting the city's land-use plan to accommodate other uses, such as more commercial centres. “The city is entitled to change the plan. The land is large enough to do that.”
When Mr. Campbell left a private development company eight years ago to join Waterfront Toronto, he discovered the publicly owned agency had to complete no fewer than 263 federal and provincial environmental assessments before it could begin redevelopment activities. It also faced six-month delays when submitting funding requests to the three levels of government that are its shareholders.
“The lack of tools, the regulatory constraints – I’m proud of what we’ve done given the constraints,” he said.
The agency’s strategy, which creates a naturalized estuary that opens into the harbour while retaining the Keating Channel, relies on relatively clean city land for the parkland areas prescribed in the city’s official plan. Waterfront Toronto estimates the new rivermouth will cost $634-million and could be completed within five years of the approval of the environmental assessment, which has been submitted to Ontario’s Ministry of the Environment.
The controversy over Waterfront Toronto’s plan has arisen because several developers, including Westfield, an Australian shopping mall builder, have spoken with Councillor Doug Ford and Toronto Port Lands Corp. officials about acquiring property on the Port Lands.
Investors regularly approach his agency with requests to buy and develop land on the waterfront, Mr. Campbell said, but it rejects unsolicited offers. “We cannot do deals behind closed doors. We go through a public procurement process because we’re dealing with a public asset. We encourage those investors to be part of the process, but we can’t do one-off deals.”
Mr. Campbell also warned that an abrupt shift in direction, and the likely delays associated with redoing much of the environmental assessment if council goes ahead with the Toronto Port Lands Corp. plan, will send the wrong signal to investors at a time when the agency is poised to begin soliciting development proposals for the heavily contaminated north side of the Keating Channel.
Having survived three mayors, seven changes of government and 15 cabinet ministers, Mr. Campbell takes the long view and sounded confident that the agency can work with the Ford administration instead of turning back the regulatory clock by as much as four years.
“I understand their impatience. They want to open up the thing and say, ‘What can we do?’ I think there’s room for us to work collaboratively with them. We think we’ve got a great plan. Doesn’t mean it can’t accommodate some of the features people are looking at. Maybe it’s time to pause, and, through a public process, look at some of these ideas.”

for more information on Toronto Condos and Toronto Real Estate

Enlarge this image New Port Lands plan will cost taxpayers $270-million


The man battling Rob Ford for control over Port Lands redevelopment is warning that the mayor's new plan will cost an additional quarter of a billion dollars for infrastructure. In a wide-ranging interview with The Globe and Mail, Waterfront Toronto CEO John Campbell stressed his agency selected the most cost-effective alternative for naturalizing the mouth of the Don River and building a flood plain capable of handling storms of the magnitude of Hurricane Hazel. Under the mayor’s plan – which features a megamall, Ferris wheel and monorail – Toronto taxpayers could be on the hook for up to $270-million in extra infrastructure costs, according to Waterfront Toronto officials, citing financial estimates that were prepared by third-party costing and hydrology consultants retained for the lengthy environmental assessment process. Among other things, the additional expenses include $50-million for relocating a Hydro substation and $100-million to clean a heavily polluted area north of the Keating Channel, Mr. Campbell said.
These numbers will be presented to council later this month as part of the agency’s business case, which is currently being peer-reviewed.
Waterfront Toronto – an agency of the federal, provincial and Toronto governments – had been charged with coming up with a plan to redevelop the Port Lands, a vast area of heavily contaminated industrial property created by the Toronto Harbour Commission before the Second World War. But early this week, consultants for Toronto Port Lands Corp., a city agency that owns property in the area, unveiled a competing scheme that it claims will hasten revitalization while shifting the cost of infrastructure to the private sector. That scheme has received the support of Mr. Ford's executive committee.
Sounding defiant yet philosophical about the agency’s future, Mr. Campbell made no apologies for the pace of progress in redeveloping 2,000 acres of waterfront, much of it heavily polluted.
“It’s like, please, run this race and by the way, here’s a 300-pound ball and chain you’ve got to drag behind you,” he observed. “I say that to work here, you have to have a high tolerance for ambiguity.”
Officials at Waterfront Toronto say their proposal, developed by Brooklyn-based landscape architects Michael Van Valkenburgh & Associates, has been configured specifically to raise real estate prices in the Port Lands by maximizing the amount of water’s-edge land available for the sort of mixed-use residential development envisioned in the official plan.
“When you look at the value you create, you’re talking about an uptick of 35 per cent,” Mr. Campbell said.
At the same time, he didn’t rule out the possibility of adapting the city's land-use plan to accommodate other uses, such as more commercial centres. “The city is entitled to change the plan. The land is large enough to do that.”
When Mr. Campbell left a private development company eight years ago to join Waterfront Toronto, he discovered the publicly owned agency had to complete no fewer than 263 federal and provincial environmental assessments before it could begin redevelopment activities. It also faced six-month delays when submitting funding requests to the three levels of government that are its shareholders.
“The lack of tools, the regulatory constraints – I’m proud of what we’ve done given the constraints,” he said.
The agency’s strategy, which creates a naturalized estuary that opens into the harbour while retaining the Keating Channel, relies on relatively clean city land for the parkland areas prescribed in the city’s official plan. Waterfront Toronto estimates the new rivermouth will cost $634-million and could be completed within five years of the approval of the environmental assessment, which has been submitted to Ontario’s Ministry of the Environment.
The controversy over Waterfront Toronto’s plan has arisen because several developers, including Westfield, an Australian shopping mall builder, have spoken with Councillor Doug Ford and Toronto Port Lands Corp. officials about acquiring property on the Port Lands.
Investors regularly approach his agency with requests to buy and develop land on the waterfront, Mr. Campbell said, but it rejects unsolicited offers. “We cannot do deals behind closed doors. We go through a public procurement process because we’re dealing with a public asset. We encourage those investors to be part of the process, but we can’t do one-off deals.”
Mr. Campbell also warned that an abrupt shift in direction, and the likely delays associated with redoing much of the environmental assessment if council goes ahead with the Toronto Port Lands Corp. plan, will send the wrong signal to investors at a time when the agency is poised to begin soliciting development proposals for the heavily contaminated north side of the Keating Channel.
Having survived three mayors, seven changes of government and 15 cabinet ministers, Mr. Campbell takes the long view and sounded confident that the agency can work with the Ford administration instead of turning back the regulatory clock by as much as four years.
“I understand their impatience. They want to open up the thing and say, ‘What can we do?’ I think there’s room for us to work collaboratively with them. We think we’ve got a great plan. Doesn’t mean it can’t accommodate some of the features people are looking at. Maybe it’s time to pause, and, through a public process, look at some of these ideas.”

for more information on Toronto Condos and Toronto Real Estate

Mid-Summer Lull in Toronto Housing Prices.


Toronto real estate prices have slid back to levels last seen in March, after reaching a higher average in July than the same time the previous year. According to figures released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board, the average GTA selling price in July was $459,122 -- "up by almost 10 per cent compared to the July 2010 average of $418,675," it said.
But the average GTA price peaked in May at $485,520.
The March average price was $456,147, while the January price was $427,037.
Jason Mercer, the board's senior manager of market analysis, told CTV News that they consider the year-over-year price to be a more "apples to apples" comparison.
Housing prices almost always dip each summer, he said.
"Over the last four years … every year, you've seen the price decline from the spring into the summer. Just as sales edge lower in the summer, so does price," Mercer said.
In the board's news release, it highlighted strong sales volumes last month, saying they were up 23 per cent over July 2010.
However, total sales in the first seven months of 2011 are down by 1.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2010.
"But what we're seeing is an acceleration in sales," Mercer said.
He said if the pace keeps up, the board still expects about 90,000 sales transactions in 2011, which would make it the second-best year on record.
The board released its statistics on a day when the TSX suffered its worst one-day drop since the start of the recession in 2008.
It declined by 435 points, or about 3.4 per cent, closing at 12,380.13, over fears of a slowing U.S. and global economic recovery. That follows several sessions of losses.
Mercer said economic confidence appeared diminished in the summer of 2010 over changes to federal mortgage lending guidelines, along with fears about interest-rate hikes and the impact of the HST. The new provincial tax, which is harmonized with the federal GST, came into effect on July 1, 2010, and applies to most real estate purchases.
"This year, we've seen consumer confidence remain quite strong," he said, pointing to Ontario's job numbers through to June along with positive news on income growth.
Moving into the second half of the year, it will be interesting to see if the turbulence in the equities markets hurts that confidence, Mercer said.
In the GTA market, homes remain relatively affordable, with basic expenses (mortgage, utilities, taxes) totalling about 31 to 32 per cent of household income, he said.
"That is certainly acceptable from a mortgage lending perspective, and it remains low from a historic perspective," Mercer said.

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TREB: Ford needs to follow through on election promise

Within the next few weeks, my presidential term with the Toronto Real Estate Board concludes. While this occasion certainly presents an opportunity for a time of reflection, it is more important to keep looking forward and to keep the spotlight shining on key issues such as the Toronto Land Transfer Tax. Realtors and the public continue to look forward to the fulfillment of the election commitment by Mayor Rob Ford and numerous city councillors to repeal the tax. It is clear that the public expects the mayor to move forward with the commitment and it is unlikely that they will forget about this. This is a significant tax: it costs the average Toronto homebuyer almost $6,500 and, when added to the Provincial Land Transfer Tax, average Toronto homebuyers face almost $14,000 in land transfer taxes. Realtors look forward to working with the mayor and city council on a reasonable approach to deliver on this promise. TREB has consistently opposed the tax as an unfair levy that hurts Toronto’s economy. TREB strongly believes that the commitment by Ford during and after the election campaign to repeal the tax was, and is, sensible. Recently, the city’s budget chief has pointed out the budgetary challenges facing the city. Realtors believe that city council is moving in the right direction by conducting a comprehensive review of city services; we also strongly believe that the commitment to repeal the Toronto Land Transfer Tax can, and should, move forward. A recent public opinion poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs for TREB found that 75 per cent of Torontonians support Ford’s commitment to repeal the tax. In light of the budget chief’s recent comments, the poll contained interesting results. In particular, even when asked to consider the city’s expected budget shortfall, the public’s support for the repeal of the tax remains very strong, with 68 per cent of Torontonians believing that the mayor should follow through on this commitment, despite the vity’s budget challenges. The poll also found that the public is paying attention to this issue: 61 per cent of respondents were aware that Ford has committed to repeal the tax. We have an obligation to protect the affordability of home ownership for future generations. From job creation to providing a healthy and stable environment for raising a family, home ownership matters to people, communities and Ontario. Toronto Condos

Condos, condos everywhere! Sales reach record in April!


TORONTO, Ont. - It appears that new condominium developments are springing up faster than the flowers these days, and those living in the GTA are snapping them up just as fast. Sales of new condo units set a record in April after rising by 89 per cent compared to the same time last year, making it the best April on record.
"It's in the top three of any month of any year, and it's about double the average since 2000," said Stephen Dupuis with the Building Industry and Land Development Association.
"There's a new condo being sold every 13 minutes in this city, and frankly if you look at the time that the sales offices are actually open, it's probably one being sold every five minutes in terms of when you actually go in and put your money down."
However, the surge in purchases is not just in Toronto proper, as the suburbs are also experiencing a boom.
"Particularly in Halton and Oakville has got some new condominium development, and York Region, Richmond Hill, Markham are strong for new highrise condo developments. Quite a new trend," Dupuis told 680News.
Condos make up six out of every 10 new homes sold in the GTA so far this year.
Dupuis said several factors have led to the increase, including affordability and new projects going on sale. The trend is expected to continue throughout the year.
The exception to the trend is sales of low rise condos, which was down in April.
Taken from 680News.
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Buying or Selling a Condo


Customer service is important in every industry, but it’s especially important when buying a new home. Listening to purchasers concerns, finding ways to resolve issues and a commitment to take care of their product from the sale to the move-in date and beyond, should be the goals of a good homebuilder. A number of builders utilize third party companies as a resource to gauge their performance, improve their product and processes, and provide direction to their customer service team. Survey companies work with homebuilders to identify gaps and opportunities for improvement throughout the different stages of building.
Homeowners are typically surveyed twice yearly, at the 30-day mark after they move in and again around the one-year anniversary. Use of surveys, along with computerized tracking systems, will help ensure builders provide exceptional service throughout relationship with their purchasers. The surveys are used as a benchmark to meet and exceed customer’s expectations, but can only happen if homeowners take the time to complete them.
When visiting a prospective builder, homeowners should inquire about their customer support. Specifically, ask the builder if there is a designated contact person to field questions about the building process for your particular unit or any concerns that may arise from point of sale to prior to move-in.
Find out if the amenity spaces will be finished before you occupy your condo. Ask builders what condition the lobbies will be in at time of occupancy. And don’t forget to ask about their customer service policy for after you move in.
A direct contact person should be available to homeowners during all phases of construction and will help them feel connected. It is a long relationship from the start of a purchase to when homeowners are handed the keys, particularly in the case of high-rise condominiums. A positive customer experience will lead to additional referrals for a reputable builder. Referrals are critical to building business and sustaining the builders’ brand in a very competitive market.
Tarion Warranty Corporation has established benchmarks for customer service standards and awards for the residential construction industry in Ontario.
There are specific minimum service response time-frames outlined by Tarion for builders to address any deficiencies in a new home after occupancy. Reputable builders go above and beyond these benchmarks and a company’s reputation is built on a foundation of quality in all aspects of the industry.
Sourcing only the highest quality materials, providing superior workmanship or standing by each home and condominium not only offers customers the best product available, it can also help the builder win awards for surpassing industry standards — a key for earning a high level of public trust.
Customers’ expectations have changed over the years and builders can find it a significant challenge in meeting all the expectations of their purchasers. A goodbuilder will make sure there is constant information available through various media, such as websites or newsletters, to educate and inform their purchasers



Toronto Home Resales Fall on Tighter Mortgage Restrictions.


By Ka Yan Ng TORONTO (Reuters) - Sales of existing homes in Canada fell 4.4 percent in April from March as activity dropped off after a first-quarter rush to buy before the introduction of new mortgage rules.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said on Tuesday that 36,564 homes changed hands in April, down from 38,263 in March.
The national average price in April rose 8 percent from a year earlier to a nonseasonally adjusted C$372,544 ($380,147), while new listings edged up 1.3 percent in April from March, CREA said.
The decline in sales came as little surprise as tighter mortgage rules, which took aim at mortgage amortization and refinancing, came into effect early in the spring. CREA said the new regulations probably sidelined a number of first-time homebuyers.
"April's decline in existing home sales shows the impact of the March 18 changes to mortgage rules that lifted existing home sales in Q1 to their highest level in a year as buyers rushed to buy ahead of the change," said Leslie Preston, economic analyst at Toronto-Dominion Bank.
"We don't expect the first quarter's pace to be sustained and April's reading sets the stage for an expected softening."
Canada's housing market has shown resiliency compared with other countries whose markets dived during the financial crisis.
Data on Tuesday showed the U.S. housing market has still not recovered as housing starts and building permits fell in April. Residential construction was crowded out by an oversupply of used homes on the market, in particular, foreclosed properties.
TRANSITORY FACTORS
Analysts said the new mortgage regulations contributed to the month's 4.4 percent pullback, though the impact was hard to measure.
The month's decline left year-over-year sales off nearly 15 percent. Last year's spring sales may have also been pushed forward by homebuyers wanting to get ahead of the July 2010 introduction of harmonized sales taxes in Ontario and British Columbia, the provinces that are home to the country's most expensive metropolitan markets: Toronto and Vancouver, respectively.
"This makes it difficult to compare the two months in order to reliably gauge the impact of the latest round of mortgage rule changes," Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist, said.
Overall, analysts predict the housing market -- the sector that led Canada out from recession -- will cool further in coming months because of the new mortgage rules and higher borrowing costs but that it won't drop as much as earlier forecast.
Last week, CREA lifted its 2011 national forecast for home resales to 441,100, a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percent.
The new estimate compares with the 1.6 percent year-on-year decline it forecast in February, which itself was revised up from an earlier forecast.
It also forecast the average price would rise 4 percent this year, compared with February's view of a 1.3-percent rise, largely based on stronger-than-expected sales of multimillion-dollar homes in British Columbia.
CREA's April price figures supported this view, as prices rose 2.5 percent in the Vancouver area to a seasonally adjusted C$801,719 even though sales fell 12.1 percent in the month. The average Vancouver price was up 21 percent from a year earlier.

Demand to Remain Strong


Toronto, Canada (TREB) – The first quarter of 2011 ended strongly for the existing home market in the Greater Toronto Area. Resale transactions reported through the TorontoMLS® system in March amounted to 9,262 – the second strongest March on record behind March 2010. There were 19,610 sales reported during the first quarter, representing a 12.5 per cent dip compared to the record pace experienced during the first three months of 2010. I asked Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s (TREB’s) Senior Manager of Market Analysis, to provide some context for the sales figures reported so far this year. He provided both a historical back-drop and a forward looking view: “This year’s first quarter result was slightly higher than the average for the last five years and was in line with TREB’s forecast sales range for 2011. At the beginning of this year, our forecast range for sales through the TorontoMLS® was between 80,000 and 85,000. The actual first quarter result supports this forecast, so we will be making very little if any adjustment to our outlook on sales,” said Mercer.
The average price for March 2011 transactions was $456,147, representing a five per cent increase compared to the average of $434,696 reported in March of 2010. Price growth through the first three months of the year was quite uniform, ranging between four and little over five per cent. I asked Jason Mercer to provide his view on the pace of price growth so far this year.
“The annual rate of price growth in the first quarter was at the upper end of TREB’s forecast range of between three and five per cent. We have not seen as many new listings as expected so far this year. In March, for example, new listings were down by 19 per cent compared to March 2010. This means that market conditions have tightened up and there is more competition between buyers. The result has been continued price growth,” said Mercer.
When considering housing market conditions in the GTA, I think it is also important to break things down in terms of geography and home type. First off, home buyers in the GTA benefit from a great diversity of home types. In the first quarter, a substantial share of home sales was accounted for by the four major home types: single-detached and semi-detached houses, townhomes and condominium apartments. Low-rise home types accounted for approximately three-quarters of total sales, with condominium apartments accounting for the other 25 per cent. Average sale prices ranged between approximately $320,000 for condominium apartments through to approximately 570,000 for single-detached homes.
It is interesting to note, however, that when we break sales down by geography the mix of home types sold can vary quite a bit. In the City of Toronto, 45 per cent of total sales were accounted for by condominium apartments. The regions surrounding the City of Toronto have a much greater share of low-rise sales along with some denser nodes of condominium apartment sales in parts of Peel and York regions.
The existing home market remains on a healthy footing in the GTA. Sales levels remain strong from a historic perspective and the average selling price continues to grow at a strong, but sustainable pace. With the economic outlook continuing to improve, I expect this situation will continue moving forward.
Bill Johnston is President of the Toronto Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 31,000 REALTORS® in the Greater Toronto Area.


One Bloor East reveals T.O.'s unquenchable thirst for condos


It's the sexiest vacant lot in Canada. What it lacks in amenities, it makes up for in location, location, location: the southeast corner of Yonge and Bloor Streets, Toronto’s crossroads, where the city’s most important subway lines meet underfoot. Just to the west is the snootiest row of shops in the country—Holt Renfrew, Cartier, Tiffany, Hugo Boss. A bit to the east soar the stately headquarters of corporate titans Manulife and Rogers. This acre of dirt is rich in history, too—the post-millennial kind. It was the figurative summit of the city’s frenzied condominium boom of the 2000s, and ground zero for the bust stemming from the financial crisis in 2008. But most important, One Bloor East stands—or, rather, just lies there, for the moment—as an emblem of Toronto’s unkillable condo market. For that bust was quickly reversed by a stunning resurgence, despite a punishing recession.
If you were making a movie of this saga, you’d set the first scene on Nov. 13, 2007. Hundreds of people line up on the sidewalk for the opening of the neighbouring sales office for One Bloor East. The proposed 80-storey condo and hotel tower will be the tallest in Toronto. Many of those in line are stand-ins, hired by real estate agents, and they’ve been waiting in line for days.
Just before the office is due to open, the crowd groans as sales staff hike the range of condo prices advertised on a sign outside—$300,000 to $2 million becomes $500,000 to $8 million. Agents squawk into cellphones to their head offices or clients overseas, then barge in and place orders anyway.
Now jump to the summer of 2009. Condo sales in Toronto have plummeted by more than half. At One Bloor East, exit Bazis International Inc., an upstart developer that had arrived on the scene in 2005. Exit also Bazis’s ambitious young Russian-born CEO, Michael Gold—forced to sell the Yonge-Bloor lot to relieve a cash crisis. Enter the buyer: the Great Gulf Group, wily old development pros.
The next scene is set on March 24, 2010. It’s a low-key party for select real estate agents being held by Great Gulf to open its sales office for One Bloor East. “We aren’t opening to create lineups,” declares Bruce Freeman, Great Gulf’s executive vice-president of sales and marketing. The company doesn’t have to; it has already sold almost 85% of its 693 units, most of them by reclosing Gold’s clients.
A keenly interested bystander is Gold. He may have lost One Bloor East, but he’s now a comeback kid who will soon be able to point to his three other condo projects in Toronto.
There’s only one cinematic problem here: It’s a bogus journey for the only characters a young movie audience could identify with—first-time homebuyers. Vast numbers of them were priced out of the market for houses in Toronto and many other Canadian cities in the early 2000s. Condos are their only alternative. And, after all, new condo buildings have their attractions—One Bloor’s plans include a shopping mall, two pools, and a two-floor spa with a gym, yoga studio and “foot relax basins.” But the average new condo in Toronto now costs about $500 a square foot. That translates into about $250,000 for an entry-level one-bedroom of just over 500 square feet, and maybe twice that price or more in One Bloor or even ritzier downtown developments. Before monthly fees, that is.
How did this happen? Is permanent condo mania the new reality? Or is the market headed for another crash—a real one this time?
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Typically, it takes about five years from the purchase of a condominium building site to buyers moving in and the developer collecting its money. In between, the developer and its partners and lenders are vulnerable to any upheavals in the real estate market and the economy at large because they are highly leveraged and they are stuck with a large, illiquid asset.
In the case of One Bloor, Bazis bought almost all of the lot for about $63 million in December, 2006. Gold, who’s now 48, won’t say how much of that money was Bazis’s, but, typically, the developer only puts up a fraction of even that initial outlay. Some of the rest may come from equity partners who take an ownership interest in the project, but the bulk of it is usually borrowed. Bazis had what looked like a top-drawer equity partner, Lehman Brothers, the giant New York investment bank, and a rock-solid lead lender, the French bank Société Générale, which had agreed to head a consortium of European banks that would provide the construction loans.
Even though it was near the peak of a boom, Bazis’s plan for Yonge and Bloor was startling. The southeast corner of the storied intersection had been an eyesore for decades—a ramshackle block of low-level storefronts, many of them fast-food joints. “For us, it was an opportunity to do a signature project,” says Gold. “It was going to cost $450 million to $500 million.” One Bloor would have a three-storey mall at its base, a 15-storey hotel, and 65 storeys of condos, shooting high above everything else in sight.
The lineup frenzy in November, 2007, and an average sale price of $850 a square foot were also impressive. One buyer from China reportedly signed up for a penthouse worth $24 million. Still, Toronto’s real estate industry was skeptical that Bazis could pull it off. “They had money, but they didn’t have a lot of credibility,” says veteran condo realtor and developer Brad Lamb.
Getting at the reality behind the perceptions is hard. Like most sizable Canadian residential developers, Bazis is privately owned and doesn’t disclose its financial results. Gold is also guarded about his family, which adds to the air of mystery around One Bloor East. He says his background is modest—his father is an engineer and his mother an accountant, and the family emigrated from St. Petersburg in 1977. Gold studied general arts and sciences at York University, then ran several businesses in the 1990s, including clothing stores in Toronto. His plunge into development didn’t come until after he got married in 2005. His wife is from a family of developers in Kazakhstan, a fast-developing but democratically deficient petro-state in central Asia. Initially, Bazis in Toronto was an arm of a parent company of the same name in Kazakhstan.
In late 2007, the Toronto market was so hot that there appeared to be room for plenty of upstarts and glitzy new high-rises. More than 130 condo projects launched that year in the city and surrounding suburbs, and sales of new condos soared by 32% to a record 22,399 units.
In May, 2008, Gold razed the stores occupying the One Bloor site. He’d sold more than 80% of the condo units, leased more than half the retail space and had lined up the European chain Sofitel as the tenant for the hotel. That was more than enough to satisfy SocGen and its consortium, which lent Bazis $250 million for construction.
That’s a lot of money, though, which is why condo developers and lenders typically take several steps to limit their risk. The lessons of past markets are still fresh in their minds. In the not too distant past, banks often financed projects with relatively few presales. In the late 1980s, deposit requirements for condo buyers were just 5% to 10% of the purchase price and buyers could resell units, even in proposed buildings, days after they bought them. “Everyone was an investor,” says real estate consultant Barry Lyon. “The cab driver, the barber—everyone was picking up a condo to flip it.” This layering of levers collapsed with a vengeance when Toronto and many other Canadian cities went through a spectacular real estate bubble and bust in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Now, government regulations and bank lending practices require developers to sell 60% to 70% of their units before they can get construction financing. Canada’s big banks and other lenders limit the amount they will put into any one development, and the total dollars they will lend in individual cities and regions. They also like to see a developer ally itself with an equity partner—or several—with deep pockets and a track record.
By September, 2008, Gold had jumped through all those hoops. But on the morning of Sunday, Sept. 14, he received a fateful phone call at home. It was his contact at Lehman, who said, “Turn on CNN. We are bankrupt. We will not be in a position to finance anything.” Gold was incredulous. “This was a $639-billion investment bank,” he says, “$639 billion.”
SocGen and its consortium also headed toward the exits. Gold quickly called a meeting with representatives of all the banks, and pleaded: “Guys, we have the presales. The people are there.” But at that point, the finances of One Bloor itself were irrelevant. It looked like no bank in the world was safe, and each of Gold’s lenders, as he remembers, pointed at the others and said, “We don’t know if that bank is going to be there in six months.” Soon after, SocGen shut its North American real estate office.
What about the deposits that One Bloor buyers had put down—20% in most cases? Gold couldn’t get at them because, by law, that money is locked in trust accounts until closing.
The nightmare then got even worse for Gold. A trio of Toronto vulture investors had bought Bazis’s loans for the property from its bankers at a discount to the full amount, hoping to foreclose if the company couldn’t make its payments. “It’s like when you have a mortgage on your house,” says Gold. “The bank can sell that loan to anybody, at any given time.” In April, 2009, the investors filed a lawsuit in an attempt to seize control of the One Bloor project. Two other Bazis condo projects in Toronto were also on hold, and industry gossip had it that Gold’s company was about to go under.
As shocking as the global meltdown was, Gold says the timing could have been even worse—it could have come when he’d already started building One Bloor. “In high-rise construction, once you start, you can’t stop,” he explains. “You can’t say, ‘I’m going to stop at floor 12, or take out floors 18 to 22, and then continue on.’” And very few developers have enough cash on hand to pay construction workers and suppliers out of their own pocket. Nor can they sell off small portions of properties or buildings to pay bills as they come due. “In our business, we have big assets, but we roll the money,” says Gold. And so, as the financial crisis took hold in late 2008 and early 2009, a game of chicken between developers and lenders began.
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In retrospect, you wonder how anyone could believe that all the world’s major banks and real estate markets could crash at once, especially in Canada, with its highly centralized and tightly regulated financial sector. But things sure looked scary at the time to developers. Brad Lamb was arguably in worse shape than Gold—Lamb had four condo projects worth $300 million on the go. “I had 700 condos, sales were dead and I had no construction loans,” he says. “It became evident to me that I was screwed.”
But developers had several things going for them. One was the Bank of Canada. Like central banks in all the world’s leading economies, it slashed interest rates and injected billions of dollars into the chartered banks to encourage them to keep lending. For the most part, the banks still wouldn’t grant loans for new projects, but they were carefully doling out money for many that were already under way or ones that met the 70% presales threshold.
Developers also scrambled to adjust. To get construction loans for his four projects, Lamb managed to push presales over 80%, and injected more of his own equity into them—several million dollars.
Gold bobbed and weaved, too, with mixed results. He kept control of Exhibit, a proposed 32-storey tower across the street from the Royal Ontario Museum’s striking and controversial Michael Lee-Chin Crystal, and Emerald Park, twin green glass towers slated for a busy intersection in northern Toronto. To do that, however, he had to invite in two respected Toronto developers as equity partners in both projects: Plazacorp Urban Residential Communities and Metropia. That helped secure construction loans.
Gold wasn’t as lucky at One Bloor, a much bigger proposition. No Canadian bank was willing to lend him $250 million. Nor would the four largest banks even split the risk. And the vulture investors were circling. In September, 2009, Gold tossed in his cards at One Bloor and sold the lot to Great Gulf, although neither he nor Great Gulf will call it a distress sale. “We were interested once we knew it was available,” says Great Gulf’s Bruce Freeman. He won’t disclose the purchase price, but Gold says it was about $53 million, a painful haircut for him. Bazis also retains a small ownership interest in One Bloor (Gold won’t disclose the size). As for the One Bloor buyers’ deposits, those were released from trust accounts, and Great Gulf has since reclosed three-quarters of the sales.
If rock-bottom interest rates made that feat possible, the fact remains that for homebuyers, low interest rates are always a mixed blessing. They make it easier to borrow, but they also inflate prices. The trigger for the real estate crash of the early 1980s was mortgage rates that soared to near 20% as the Bank of Canada and other central banks tried to suffocate double-digit inflation. They relented somewhat in the mid-1980s, and the real estate market boomed again. But even in the late 1980s, many mortgage rates remained above 10%, and the Bank yanked them even higher in 1989 and 1990.
In 2009, by contrast, the Bank was doing everything it could to keep the economy alive and avoid a U.S.-style real estate meltdown. At the variable mortgage rates of 2.5% or lower that prevailed in 2009—as they continue to do—even a $1-million loan carries for just $25,000 a year in interest charges. Knowing this, Toronto developers and realtors held the line on condo prices and waited for buyers to come back.
They didn’t have to wait long. Again, the turning point was a lineup. On Nov. 25, 2009, Great Gulf opened its sales office for X2, a proposed 42-storey high-rise two blocks east of One Bloor. It was the first opening of a major condominium project in the city in a year. With overall sales in the market still slow, Great Gulf priced units $15 to $20 per square foot below what it figured were the market averages. The company needn’t have bothered being so cautious. As in 2007 for One Bloor East, some real estate agents camped out for days. And there was shouting and shoving when the doors opened.
“Did that surprise us? Yeah.” says Freeman. “We had a situation that day.”
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The “condo-monium” over X2, as one newspaper headline described it, gave the whole Toronto real estate market a shot in the arm. Total sales of new condo units for 2009 closed the year at 15,544, down about a third from the peak in 2007, but still respectable. Last year, new condo sales soared back to 20,897, second only to 2007. Resales of existing condos set a new record: 21,147.
Freeman, one of three Great Gulf executives who co-founded the company in 1975, says that the 2008-2009 real estate slump turned out to be less severe than busts at the beginning of the 1980s and the early 1990s. “Business was difficult, but manageable,” he says. For Great Gulf, that is explainable partly because it is much larger and more diversified than Bazis and many other developers. Great Gulf builds both houses and high-rises across Southern Ontario, and has averaged about 1,000 new units of each in recent years. In booms or busts, it’s easier to speed up or slow down construction of a new subdivision of single-family homes than a condo tower.
The company has also scaled back slightly at One Bloor, which is scheduled for occupancy in 2014. Gold’s proposed 15-storey hotel is gone. But Great Gulf is still promising plenty of pizzazz, including an exterior pattern of balconies by architect David Pontarini that is “sculpted with piano curves to evoke a warm modernism that is organic and timeless.” Young buyers, in particular, appreciate bells and whistles like inspired design and footbaths.
The trouble for them is the price of the basic product. The same goes for their only realistic alternative: rentals. The still-buoyant real estate market hasn’t just kept house and condo prices high; it’s held rents aloft as well. Developers in Toronto and other major Canadian cities stopped building large new rental high-rises in the 1970s. That was partly due to rent controls in Ontario and other provinces, but also because condominiums offered a faster, more certain payoff to a developer—once the building is completed and you’ve sold the units, you’re out. You don’t have to manage and maintain it for years, even decades. As for owners, they could either occupy the units or make a pretty penny renting them out. “Condos have become the de facto new rental supply,” says consultant Barry Lyon. That supply is much more expensive than old rental high-rises. Lyon and other analysts say that renters typically pay 50% more for a new condo unit than they would on rent for a comparable apartment in an aged building.
And whenever condo prices and rents rise, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, there’s a temptation to blame speculators—foreign ones in particular. Lyon says that foreign buyers are certainly a big and steady source of demand, but the “speculator” label no longer applies. The minimum deposit for foreign purchasers is now 35%, and, like Canadian investors, foreigners typically hold units for several years, Lyon says. On the other hand, he acknowledges that some realtors’ estimates that 25% to 40% of all new condo sales in the Toronto area last year were to overseas customers are probably close to the mark.
To those international investors and others, Toronto still looks relatively cheap. Average prices per square foot for new condos climbed from $456 a square foot in January, 2010, to $510 in January, 2011. But Toronto’s prices are still only a third of those in central London, half those in Tokyo and Hong Kong, and about two-thirds of those in Manhattan. Toronto appears safe and cosmopolitan, too—no ethnic or religious strife, drug wars, dictators or earthquake fault lines. “I don’t think we appreciate ourselves what a great city we have,” says Lyon.
Nevertheless, many economists say that something will have to give soon. In a widely publicized research note published last November, David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, said he was “pleasantly surprised by the fact that the real estate market has eased, rather than busted. Be that as it may, a more pernicious turndown in real estate values cannot be ruled out, especially if the Bank of Canada follows the market and resumes its rate-hiking program early next year.”
Developers like Gold and Lamb smirk at those kinds of predictions. “I don’t think a one- or two-percentage-point increase is going to affect the market,” says Gold. “We aim at a segment that is more of a higher-end luxury product.” Lamb argues that house prices in central Toronto have soared permanently out of reach of the vast majority of buyers—$1 million for a sizable family home. That leaves condos, and he’s concentrating on the fat middle of the market, whose centre of gravity is around $500,000. He adds that if you look beyond the hype that ultrahigh-end Toronto projects such as the Residences at the Ritz-Carlton, Shangri-La Toronto and the Trump International Hotel and Tower have generated in recent years, most other developers are catering to that middle as well.
Still, even Lamb acknowledges that the city might reach a price threshold within a few years. He figures that will be when the average new condo hits $750 a square foot. At that price, and with interest rates slightly higher than they are now and downtown condo rents averaging, say, $3 per square foot per month, he says that buyers will “get to zero.” That means their rental income will no longer exceed their mortgage costs.
Lamb adds that developers won’t be able to adjust by reducing the size of their units any more, either. Even One Bloor East, a centrally located, upscale project, is approaching the minimum realistic size in many of its “suites.” And a new-condo market dominated by young single buyers over the past decade is aging. “What happens if they couple up?” asks Barry Lyon. “Is 550 square feet enough?” Add a baby carriage to that equation and you have to wonder.
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Toronto vs. the world
Just how expensive—or not—is it to buy a condo in Toronto? The city sits at No. 15 out of 94 on the Global Property Guide’s ranking of the World’s Most Expensive Cities, based on average U.S.-dollar prices per square foot of centrally located apartments (assuming a small—550 square feet—one-bedroom unit):

$385,000

Pricey compared to…
Rome $366,000 Sydney $356,000 Amsterdam $310,000 Shanghai $278,000 Berlin $203,000
Cheap compared to…
Monaco $3,056,270 London $1,194,000 Hong Kong $839,000 Tokyo $658,000 New York $615,000

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